Author: Mayank Verma PREC*

Halloween falls on October 31 because the ancient Gaelic festival of Samhain, considered the earliest known root of Halloween, occurred on this day.
In the eighth century, Pope Gregory III designated November 1 as a time to praise all saints.
Soon, All Saints' Day incorporated some traditions of Samhain and the evening before was known as All Hallows Eve, and later Halloween.
Over time, Halloween evolved into a day of activities like trick-or-treating, carving jack-o-lanterns, festive gatherings, donning costumes and eating treats.
Today’s the day to eat candies and sweets to your heart’s content! Happy Halloween!

Canada’s central bank has rolled out a new forecasting model that places housing right at the heart of its economic outlook. This model, introduced in late Q3, digs much deeper into household finances—tracking mortgage payments, housing supply, business costs, spending, and inflation in ways we haven’t seen before. What stands out is how it separates households by their financial situations, reflecting the real impact of mortgage renewals, income shifts, and borrowing limits on spending habits. The findings? Rate hikes have driven up mortgage interest costs, yet eased some other ownership costs as demand cooled and construction pressures lifted. The model also reveals how rental and ownership demand interact with construction, home prices, and shelter inflation, highlighting that rent inflation tends to adjust more gradually. For those of us watching the real estate market, this tool offers valuable insights into how economic changes ripple through housing—and helps shape more accurate forecasts. As someone who keeps a close eye on shifts in Vancouver, Surrey, and beyond, I see how these trends affect both buyers and sellers across our communities.

As we look ahead to 2026, recent forecasts suggest we'll see about a 5% adjustment in Canadian home sales. This is largely due to higher government bond yields, which are expected to keep fixed mortgage rates elevated for a bit longer. The average home price across Canada isn’t projected to change much in 2026, with only a modest increase—less than 2%—anticipated in 2027, rather than a quick rebound. Bond yields are expected to hold near the mid-3% range through late Q4, with a gradual decline across 2027. For those of us in British Columbia and Ontario, the outlook points to improved sales in 2027, while Alberta is set to lead the way in price growth. All of this, of course, relies on bond yields starting to ease later in the year and the central bank maintaining a steady policy. As someone who’s worked with clients across Surrey, Vancouver, and beyond, I’m watching these shifts closely to help buyers and sellers make informed decisions in a market that’s always evolving.

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When we talk about housing affordability here in BC, it’s easy to focus just on home prices. But as I’ve seen working across neighbourhoods in Surrey, Vancouver, and beyond, the real story is more layered. For homeownership to truly be within reach, incomes matter just as much as listing prices—something that’s often overlooked in the debate.

Recently, the provincial government proposed a tax on vacant, unsold new condos, hoping to motivate developers to move inventory and bring prices down for buyers. It’s a timely move because our market was already in a phase of correction, with slow sales, few presales, and developers under pressure from high construction and financing costs.

Here’s a fact that stands out: Real estate and construction make up about 28% of BC’s GDP, and construction alone supports over 190,000 jobs. That’s why affordability isn’t just about what you pay for a home, but also about how strong incomes are in our communities.

The lesson for all of us—buyers, sellers, and industry professionals alike—is to keep pushing for solutions that go beyond prices. We need to keep working on both the supply side and the income side: investing in job creation, productivity, and a diversified economy to ensure that owning a home can be a real possibility for more families.